Prediction of Life Expectancy in Indonesia by Implementing Website-Based Lagrange Polynomial Interpolation

Syamsul Maarip(1), Aam Hermansyah(2), Sopi Nuryani Hadraeni(3), Salman Miqdad(4), Ardhan Dimas Nuryadin(5), Siti Yuliyanti(6*),

(1) Universitas Siliwangi
(2) Universitas Siliwangi
(3) Universitas Siliwangi
(4) Universitas Siliwangi
(5) Universitas Siliwangi
(6) Universitas Siliwangi
(*) Corresponding Author

Abstract


Life Expectancy (AHH) is a measurement of the average human lifespan accepted and used to assess the quality of health and welfare of a country's population. Accepted to develop a prediction system that can be easily accessed by the general public via a web platform. The method used to predict is the Lagrange polynomial interpolation method. The Lagrange polynomial interpolation method was chosen because it can model irregular numerical data with a fairly high level of accuracy. The data used to predict AHH comes from the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency (BPS). Known data on life expectancy in Indonesia for men from 2020 to 2023 shows 69.59, 69.67, 69.93 and 70.17. Predictions for 2024, 2025 and 2026 respectively show 70.19, 69.79, 68.77 with a Root Mean Squared Error result of 0.085875 or around 8.58% of the total data tested. The results of implementing the Lagrange polynomial interpolation method into an application in the form of this website show that this method is able to provide accurate predictions for life expectancy in Indonesia and can make it easier to use.

Keywords: Interpolasi, Polinom Langrange, Life Expectancy, prediction, lifespan

Full Text:

PDF

References


E. D. Sihaloho, “Pengaruh Belanja Kesehatan Terhadap Angka Harapan Hidup Kabupaten Kota Di Jawa Barat,” Ekspansi: Jurnal Ekonomi, Keuangan, Perbankan dan Akuntansi, vol. 11, no. 1, p. 117, May 2019, doi: 10.35313/ekspansi.v11i1.1308.

World Health Organization, Framework and standards for country health information systems. 2008. [Online]. Available: http://www.healthmetricsnetwork.org

A. S. Rahma and R. I. Fajar, “Daftar Negara dengan Penduduk Paling Panjang Umur Menurut Data WHO, Indonesia Posisi Berapa?,” Geriatri. Accessed: Jun. 20, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.geriatri.id/artikel/2043/daftar-negara-dengan-penduduk-paling-panjang-umur-menurut-data-who-indonesia-posisi-berapa

Jennifer. Niederst Robbins, Learning Web design : a beginner’s guide to HTML, CSS, JavaScript, and web graphics. 2012.

M. Nina Adlini, A. Hanifa Dinda, S. Yulinda, O. Chotimah, and S. Julia Merliyana, “Metode Penelitian Kualitatif Studi Pustaka,” 2022.

W. Rahmadani and S. C. Sihombing, “Analisis Penyebaran Virus Covid-19 di Provinsi Sumatera Selatan Menggunakan Metode Interpolasi Lagrange,” Jurnal Penelitian Fisika dan Terapannya (JUPITER), vol. 2, no. 1, p. 12, Jul. 2020, doi: 10.31851/jupiter.v2i1.5314.

T. Safitri, N. Dwidayati, and K. Kunci, “Perbandingan Peramalan Menggunakan Metode Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winters dan Arima,” Unnes Journal of Mathematics, vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 48–58, 2017, [Online]. Available: http://journal.unnes.ac.id/sju/index.php/ujm

V. Hariadi, A. Saikhu, N. Zakiya, A. Y. Wijaya, and F. Baskoro, “Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Using Recurrent Neural Networks for Meteorological Data,” Conference SENATIK STT Adisutjipto Yogyakarta, vol. 5, Nov. 2019, doi: 10.28989/senatik.v5i0.365.

S. Yuliyanti and Saripudin, "Implementasi Algoritma FG-Growth untuk Sistem Rekomendasi Penjualan Produk," JUMANJI, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 41-51, 2021.

Y. D. Lestari, "Penerapan Data Mining Menggunakan Algoritma Fp-Tree Dan Fp-Growth Pada Data Transaksi Penjualan Obat," Seminar Nasional Teknologi Informasi dan Komunikasi (SNASTIKOM), pp. 60-65, 2015.

A. X. A. Sim, "Pengenalan Desain dan Analisis Algoritma," 01 July 2013. [Online]. Available: http://dev.bertzzie.com/knowledge/analisis-algoritma/PengenalanDesaindanAnalisisAlgoritma.html#algoritma-yang-baik.

H. Aprillia, H. Yang and C. Huang, "Statistical load forecasting using optimal quantile regression random forest and risk assessment index," IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 1467-1480, 2020.

P. G. Arepalli and K. J. N. *, "Water contamination analysis in IoT enabled aquaculture using deep learning based AODEGRU," Elsevier : Ecological Informatics, vol. 2024, no. 12, pp. 1-16, 2024.

F. A. Pangruruk and S. P. Barus, "Comparison of Prediction of the Number of People Exposed to Covid 19 Using the Lagrange Interpolation Method with the Newton Gregory Maju Polynomial Interpolation Method," Formosa Journal of Applied Sciences (FJAS), pp. 1405-1426, 2023.

D. Feng, Q. Han, L. Xu, F. Sohel, S. G. Hassan and S. L. a, "An ensembled method for predicting dissolved oxygen level in aquaculture environment," Ecological Informatics, vol. 80, no. 1, pp. 1-15, 2024.

H. A. A. a. V. M. Dewi, "Factors Affecting Life Expectancy in East Java: Predictions with A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Jurnal Perencanaan The Indonesian Journal of Development Planning, vol. V, no. 2, pp. 283-295, 2021.

Z. Ahmed and H. Le, "Linking Information Communication Technology, trade globalization index, and CO2 emissions: evidence from advanced panel techniques," Environmental Science and Pollution Research, vol. 28, no. 7, pp. 8770-8781, 2021.

A. Kurniadi, Kusrini and M. F. Sadikin, "Implementasi Convolutional Neural Network Untuk Klasifikasi Varietas Pada Citra Daun Sawi Menggunakan Keras," : Journal of Computer and Information Technology , vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 25-33, 2020.

Maulana, "Black Box Testing Adalah : Pengertian dan Contohnya," /TBox by Course-Net Indonesia, 20 Maret 2023. [Online]. Available: https://itbox.id/blog/black-box-testing-adalah/. [Accessed 4 Juli 2023].

E. Prakasa, B. Sugiarto, A. P. S. Utama and S. Yuliyanti, "Development of Real-time Handwashing Assessment using Video Analysis," in IC3INA 2021: The 2021 International Conference on Computer, Control, Informatics and Its Applications, New York, 2021.

H. Santoso, Rekayasa Perangkat Lunak, Medan: UINSU Medan, 2019.

D. T. Larose, Discovering Knowledge in Data: An Introduction to Data Mining, John Willey & Sons, Inc., 2014.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.24071/ijasst.v6i2.9167

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.









Publisher : Faculty of Science and Technology

Society/Institution : Sanata Dharma University

 

 

 

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.